Home Prices for Great Places Continue Downward Trend

We now have a complete home price history for 2011 for our 99 great places to retire in the U.S. Time for what is turning out to be an annual post to our blog.

In general, home prices are not staging a comeback. Only 24 of our 99 great places saw an increase in home prices in 2011. State-wide, Texas and North Carolina are the bright spots, each with four cities with positive gains in 2011. Every city in California is down, South Lake Tahoe hit the hardest with a loss of 18% in average home price. Key West (+9%) and Boulder (+5%) are the lone positives in two states, Florida and Colorado, with a large group of cities in our retirement city survey. All Arizona cities are down. Average prices are down in most retirement destinations in South Carolina, Georgia, Oregon, Washington, Nevada, New York, Tennessee, Massachusetts and Arkansas.

Prices in college town destinations are down. Cities on the coasts or near large lakes and rivers are also down. Cities in warm climes are hurting, if it is a warm and dry place like the desert west, then you are really hurting. Cities in the mountains or just in a cool place with lots of precipitation are maintaining their prices.

The housing market in a good part of the country is still depressed. As I have blogged since 2009, for those in the market it is a great time to make that retirement or vacation home purchase (boy, are we glad we didn't buy in '09). Mortgage rates are still low and may stay that way for some time. Get out there and find that great place in the mountains, on the golf course, near the alma mater or even in the desert.

GreatPlacesToRetire.com provides MLS links, city blogs and the latest city data on home sales prices, air quality, water quality, medical care, recreation, crime and more for 99 top retirement cities and towns in the nation. Use GreatPlacesToRetire.com to help you make an informed decision for that retirement home, second home or vacation home acquisition.

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Home Prices for Great Places to Retire - 2010 is Done

Posts are few and far between now. It was 9 months ago in the April post I was poised to call a comeback of sorts in home prices. With 3 months of price history, already 33% of our surveyed cities showed improvement over 2009 prices. Somewhere along the way we lost momentum and so did my posts.

The WSJ just reported that home prices declined in all 28 major U.S. metropolitan areas during the 4th quarter when compared to 12 months ago.

That is sobering news. Our Great Places to Retire survey doesn't cover large metro areas but it does cover prime small to medium-sized towns and cities and what you might call 'burbs of large metro areas which include the likes of Cambridge, The Woodlands, Naperville and Paradise Valley. Home prices in 60% of our great places were down or unchanged in the past 12 months. Thus, the loss in momentum.

But that means 40% were up, and some in spectacular fashion. Galveston was up 43% and is staging an impressive comeback from a devastating hurricane in '08. Havens for the rich did well with Aspen(+43%), Kailua(+42%), Half Moon Bay(+15%) and Newport Beach(+10%) having a good 2010. More reasonably priced places did well with Fond du Lac up 21% and Fayetteville up 11%.

Colorado, New Mexico and Montana showed positive gains for all cities save for Vail which was down 9% but at a still pricey $995,000 per home sale. Talk of a stable housing market always seems to include Texas and 2 of the 5 Lone Star cities, both near Austin, showed declines in 2010.

Everything else in California, besides the beach havens already mentioned, was down in 2010. Everything in Oregon, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and South Carolina was down. Most everything in Washington, Utah, Tennessee, Florida and North Carolina was down.

The numbers don't lie. The housing market in a good part of the country, even in some of the great destinations for retirement and recreation, is in the doldrums. But for those in the market, it is still a great time to make that retirement or vacation home purchase. With mortgage rates still low but creeping upward, it might be best to get ahead of the Fed before it starts dumping its $1 trillion worth of Treasuries.

GreatPlacesToRetire.com provides MLS links, city blogs and the latest city data on home sales prices, air quality, water quality, medical care, recreation, crime and more for 99 top retirement cities and towns in the nation. Use GreatPlacesToRetire.com to help you make an informed decision for that retirement home, second home or vacation home acquisition.

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On the Rebound

Over 6 months since my last post. Quite frankly, there hasn't been much to write about with home prices still in the doldrums. But we have 3 months of 2010 price history on the books and we now have something to write about.

More than one-third of our surveyed cities show a gain for 2010. Aspen (+75%) and Lake Placid (+61%) have the largest gains, but these are small towns. Let's wait for more data before acknowledging the improvement is real. But Las Cruces (+26%), Galveston (+25%) and Boulder (+18%) had a much larger number of sales for the period and saw significant gains.

State-wise, both New Mexico cities show gains and 4 of 5 cities in both Texas and Colorado are positive for 2010, only San Marcos (-1%) and Colorado Springs (-2%) have very slight drops.

Of course, with one-third good news that leaves two-thirds of our great places still with the bad news. Everything in Nevada and North Carolina (!) is down. The only thing up in Arizona is Sedona (+5%). California and Florida are mixed with some cities up big, Half Moon Bay (+26%) and Boca Raton (+10%), and others down big, Monterey (-29%) and Key West (-11%).

But enough with the bad news. Some of our cities have seen no slump at all in home prices, climbing continuously since 2001. Tyler, Georgetown, Missoula and Iowa City have been slump free. Almost as impressive, ten more of our cities that crashed have rebounded strongly and are now even above what their prices were at the peak of the housing bubble. The best of those performers are Aspen 11% above its peak in 2007, Las Cruces 8% above its peak in 2007 and Boulder 7% above a 2006 peak.

GreatPlacesToRetire.com provides MLS links, city blogs and the latest city data on home sales prices, air quality, water quality, medical care, recreation, crime and more for 99 top retirement cities and towns in the nation. Use GreatPlacesToRetire.com to help you make an informed decision for that retirement home, second home or vacation home acquisition.

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Home Prices for Great Retirement Cities

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index was out earlier this week. It was very newsworthy because it showed a second consecutive quarterly increase in home prices of 2.9% Q2 over Q1. It is the first consecutive quarterly increase in the index in years and, hopefully, will be a consumer confidence builder.

The news is not so good for our survey of great retirement cities at GreatPlacesToRetire.com. Our 99 great towns and cities across the U.S. are down 3.4% for the same period, Q2 compared to Q1. This includes double-digit dips for such high profile towns as Sedona, Boca Raton, Newport Beach, Vail, Monterey and Southampton.

We also now have July closings in our database. This data does show a positive turn, up 0.8% over June. Our index may not yet be newsworthy but this gives us our first month over month increase in a long time. However, home prices in 50% of our towns continued down in July, including significant monthly drops in Vail, Monterey, Aspen, Hilton Head, Half Moon Bay, Reno, Annapolis and Williamsburg.

Noone knows if we have hit bottom. And there is no use in trying to predict it. Get out there and find your great place by the lake, the shore or the alma mater. There are deals to be made.

GreatPlacesToRetire.com provides MLS links and the latest city data on home sales prices, air quality, water quality, medical care, recreation, crime and more for 99 top retirement cities and towns in the nation. Use GreatPlacesToRetire.com to help you make an informed decision for that retirement home, second home or vacation home acquisition.

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More Home Price Data for 99 Great Places

Home sales price data for closings in April and May, 2009 are now available. Since our last post, 7 more cities are now under water when compared to last year's closings. Only 11 of our 99 great towns and cities show an increase from 2008.

High-priced locales Monterey and Vail top the list. But more affordable cities take the next three spots -- Bloomington, Georgetown and Provo.

The average home price in our 99-city survey is down 18% since 2006-07, the peak of the housing surge in most of the country. Vail has yet to hit a peak, up a remarkable 58% from just 3 years ago. Opportunities may lie in an attractive, yet diverse group that includes Bend, Boca Raton, Key West, Napa, Aspen, Princeton and Naples, all down over 35% from the highs.

GreatPlacesToRetire.com provides MLS links and the latest city data on home sales prices, air quality, water quality, medical care, recreation, crime and more for 99 top retirement cities and towns in the nation. Use GreatPlacesToRetire.com to help you make an informed decision for that retirement home, second home or vacation home acquisition.

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